Somalia is Under 40 Years of Punishment
Abdiqani Y. Farah
Abdiqanieau@gmail.com
OPINION
Let me go straight to the point. Somalia is still under cute transition. Historical analysis has revealed that whatever time we have been living since the civil war, we were undergoing an evolution of change that bridged us through times. Nothing could surprise us here, though. For starters, a mere glance at history discloses indifferently. That what changed over the years from 1992 to 2013 was simply the political landscape and players of cards, all intended to fool us. Consider the following hypothesis with me.
However, with your indulgence, I would first want to visit theories about how change evolves. Any theory about change holds that the only constant thing on earth is the change itself—everything else changes. Change theorists of any cultural teachings are also in common agreement that change comprises in stages.
According to social theorists such as Norbert Elias and Erwin Koffman, these stages are marked as periodic sequences of twenty years—with every twenty years indicating a new form of societal direction. This is what they call a “generational” change. When one generation passes, another one comes into being. In other words, before any change to replace the preceding one can begin, full twenty cyclical years must have passed.
With this theory in mind, let us go back to our argument and analyze the facts. When Mohamed Siad Barre set on the throne of Somalia in 1969, a new generation with military mindset was born. The military reign, whatever the political philosophy and pros and cons, had been the watch-sword since 1990. Because change happens as cyclical sequences, we enjoyed twenty years of periodic elapses with regalia and insignia. Paradoxically, we had been courting another new generation in the making during all those years.
Before we knew it, the subsequent generation started in 1991 with too much uncertainty and gloomy future for most of us. Right at the outset, many, not knowing that they would taste their urine at a higher price, celebrated for the departure of the military regime. We collectively failed to realize the fact that twenty years of madness and of disorderly society had already been unleashed upon us. Even those behind the Operations Restore Hope of 1991 failed to apprehend such facts.
Similarly, we all did not get that when a nation ceases to exist, the only way to restore the normality of the died-away nation is to build the roots ab anitio. And the only way such endeavor could become reality was to use a military hand once again. Like it or not, it was the only possible move available at the time. But because our military men were divided among clan lines, the chance for a collective die-for was next to impossible.
Successive periods of transitional government then followed suit. And whoever got us into such interim periods, we started navigating sequences of provisional governments orchestrated recklessly. The result? These administrations simply did not work because a nation doomed for twenty years of madness could not recover overnight. The malfunctions and abnormalities just tripled while we watched. Ostensibly, any national government formed between 1992 and 2012 was to entertain the mad society with the hope to ease the journey ahead.
The Kampala Accord in 2011 gave birth to another generation that would last from 2011 to 2031. In my view, this generation is similar to the previous ones in many ways. It is similar in that it is another wave of twenty years whereby new administrations are about as possible as they ever were. No doubt, the selfish politicians will abort every administration. Moreover, the UN will keep on sending ambassadors in huge successions. Put differently, this country will remain banana republic until 2031.
That is why our situation is similar to that of the children of Israel. During the reign of Moses, the children of Israel were given the orders to stand up for their rights—the city that had been prescribed to them. But they refused to take up the responsibility. When they refused the blessings, they got punishment in return: they had to wander about in the land for forty years, forty years of madness. The prime idea behind this severe punishment was to pre-empty the sluggish generation with a bouncy one.
When you examine the facts closely, you will see that we are in a similar situation. Everything—the infrastructure, structure, intellectual— that could constitute a good beginning was destroyed. What’s more, people became wild and scattered all over the world. Our minds were stained to the extent that nothing good could pass into our brain. Structured corruption, weak civic education, and incompetence among our civil servants are the order of the day.
Regional flags wore by warlords are rampant. The population itself is separated by regional categorization. And if this analogy is to true, then we are under forty years of punishment. But the good news is that we are halfway down the road. In short, we have about 20 years before we realized a new beginning. By then, a newer generation that does not fully understand what went wrong may emerge. This generation will have lesser tolerance for warlords and clan-fed politicians. Prepare for the best!
Abdiqani Y. Farah
Abdiqanieau@gmail.com
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