IGAD has saddled the Somali Federal Government (SFG) with obligations in spite of the limited capacity to govern. One question revolving in the minds of many people is: will the SFG be able to evenhandedly run the reconciliation conference aimed at solving the Jubaland crisis?
IGAD fact-finding mission found fault with the Jubaland process because organisers are believed not to have taken the rights of minorities into account. This has been interpreted as a code word for not contesting Ahmed Madobe’s or his group’s primacy in the Jubaland affairs.
Viewed from the perspective of the SFG, the Jubaland crisis has two angles: The Somali government and the neighbouring countries.
The role of the Mogadishu government
Both the Somali president and prime minister regard Jubaland administration a unilateral move by Raskambooni group led by Ahmed Madobe, the Jubaland president. But who is in charge of Mogadishu government? If one considers the MPs’ foiled attempt at a vote of confidence for the prime minister, one is bound to conclude that it is the prime minister who should be accountable to MPs. If MPs had succeeded to hold a vote of confidence, the PM might have been gone today. This would have been unfair because president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud calls the government ‘my government’ but it is prime minister Saacid who faces the wrath of disgruntled MPs. Unless the president changes his language and refrains from calling the Somali Federal Government “my government’ , the outcome of any Jubaland reconciliation confrence held in Mogadishu will give Al Shabaab a breathing space to regroup. Other challenges facing the SFG include inability to restrain some traditional leaders such as Mohamed Hassan Haad, who resort to demagoguery and calls for Jihad against Kenya.
The lop-sided ‘Somali National Army’ known for widespread rape and infighting in southern Somalia is another weakness. IGAD urged SFG to integrate militias into the national army but there are militias to be integrated into other militias, not a national army. All militias depend on AMISOM to fight Al Shabaab.
The neighbouring countries
In his speech at the IGAD leaders’ extra-ordinary meeting president Hassan Sheikh accused the international community of dealing with some regions as entities independent of SFG. Recently the Ethiopian prime minister stated that his government would protect Somaliland against any threats. The Ethiopian PM’s remarks came in the wake of a speech by president Hassan Sheikh on 18 May in which he called the north west regions (aka Somaliland) not be carried away by clan sentiments in pursuit of secession.
IGAD expects both the Mogadishu Government and Kismaayo leaders to abide by the the principles outlined in the fact-finding mission report whereas the IGAD leaders’ communique urged the SFG to align its priorities with the principles. Since the fact-finding mission highlihted differences in interpreting the draft constitution, Somali stakeholders will need resource people ( legal experts) to oversee the process of forming the ‘interim administration’ recommended by IGAD.
IGAD has deprived the SFG of the opportunity to play the sovereignty card by giving a lead role in the formation of regional administrations. The president’ s interpretation of this lead role, if past history is any guide, is a privilege to appoint regional governors.
Raxanreeb Research Unit
send comments to: raxanreeb@gmail.com
Use Facebook to Comment on this Post
