Puntland election – The battle lines
Ali Abdulle
barqadle@hotmail.co.uk
August 11 2013
OPINION
Election fever is gripping Puntland. Contenders, pundits and spin doctors from various quarters are jockeying for position, clamouring for a spot in the lime light. The current leaders in particular are hard at work. They seem to have recovered from the serious setback of abandoning their original master plan of pulling off a trick in the name of “democratisation”. But the contenders are not that far behind. Candidates are coming thick and fast setting their stalls and firing early salvos.
The battle lines have already been drawn however, so early in this campaign. As the various camps go on the campaign trail the battlegrounds will be carefully chosen from a menu of policy areas and the right weapons selected for maximum effect.
For the current leaders, the relationship between Puntland and the federal government is particularly relevant for their campaign effort. The administration and its election strategists think they are in winning ways if they play their cards correctly vis-à-vis the confrontation with Mogadishu. Cutting links albeit temporarily with them is not doing their campaign any harm at all on the contrary it could help them boost their prospects come January next year.
Election campaign aside Puntland has a genuine disagreement with the current central government. At the heart of the problem is the constitution. Designed as it was to prevent power becoming concentrated in hands of one individual, given Somalia’s recent history of dictatorship, it has now produced the exact opposite. And the reason is not difficult to find. The plan had a major flow in it from the start for it gave the power of appointing the prime minister to the president elect. It was never envisaged that a ruthless president with a hidden agenda could emerge and hand pick his prime minister and cabinet from an exclusive group of close friends, cronies and hangers-on, thus dominating the entire government apparatus, rendering the parliament more or less irrelevant.
That is the root cause of the problem and it will not go away. The system designed to introduce checks and balances dismally failed to do just that. The current constitutional arrangement as it stands is not fit for purpose.
There is only one solution in order to restore the concept of checks and balances and that is to have both the president and the prime minister elected by parliament. In addition the constitution must clearly and unambiguously define the duties and responsibilities of the president and those of the prime minister making parliament the ultimate judge with effective scrutiny over the behaviour of the executive.
Puntland government knows it is in tune with the public mood in this regard for people are angry and disappointed with the misdemeanours of the rulers in Mogadishu.
The opposition on the other hand detect a jink in the government’s armour. Puntland is in economic crisis. The government is finding it difficult even to pay its own workers on a regular basis. The administration is on the back foot on this issue. In the business world and even in the public sector, enterprises that fail to pay their way become insolvent with the receivers moving in, declaring bankruptcy. Fortunately for the current Puntland leaders such rigorous financial regulations and accountability are nonexistent.
But it would be a bitter irony if an administration that can’t pay its front line staff including teachers, doctors, nurses, police men and so on, sets aside a sizeable war chest to fight for its re-election.
The other policy area where opponents will square each other up is the cohesion of the communities that established Puntland in the first place. The most serious challenge facing the existence of Puntland as we know it, is how to bring back together all its constituent communities. The northern regions have turned their back on Puntland because they felt their development needs were ignored and there was no effective strategy to deal with the predatory forces of secession.
The challenge for the candidates is whether they can demonstrate the necessary political skills and charisma to invoke the old sprit and the optimism that led to the formation of Puntland in the first instance. Here again the government is on shaky territory.
The foundation of Puntland has been a novel concept in the political life of the country and transformed the political discourse. Federalism, pioneered by Puntland, is not only a reality in Somalia but is gaining new supporters throughout.
The forthcoming election is not a direct election and has its own peculiarities. It is an indirect election where traditional leaders select members of parliament to elect a president. There is an unpalatable narrative that these elections, at least on the face of it, are nothing more than a business activity, a kind of auction for votes with the highest bidder winning the ultimate prize.
But appearances are deceptive. To begin with selecting an MP is a complex process. There are lots of calculations and balances to strike within the inner workings of the constituent sections of any particular clan producing a member of parliament. And when eventually the process is completed and members are duly selected and sworn in they can hardly be considered as guns for hire. There is no denying that disbursement of largesse in these occasions is the order of the day. Any candidate with miniscule resources could be easily dismissed as a self-publicist, trying to attract enough attention to be considered for a ministerial post by a winning candidate.
But money in brown envelopes slipped through pockets and purses alone will not deliver victory. The main priority for MPs with a five year term is stable and functioning system to be brought in by an incoming head of the executive branch. After all what is at stake here is their salary, perks and a host of other fringe benefits.
But regarding lawmakers as a bunch of self-centred individuals interested only in what they can get out of it for themselves is misleading and a dangerous proposition. Talk of patriotic duties and a sense of public service is never far from the lips of Somali MPs whether they are at the regional or national level.
Failing to mount an inspiring election campaign and succumbing to the cynicism of the naysayers is therefore a folly of the highest order. Any candidate mounting nothing more than a lack lustre campaign could be dismissed as an opportunistic gambler and deserves to be punished come polling day.
The biggest mistake that a prospective presidential candidate can make is to take seriously the political anecdote which says “opposition parties don’t win elections; it is the government that loses”.
It is true that the current government in Puntland is tired and debilitated by the bruising battles it has been through, first to extend its term in office and then the failed “democratisation” process. But any serious contender would be wise to remember the other political anecdote that “The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know”.
The defining feature in the upcoming election will be the concept of change and how it is perceived. Is change something to be anxious about at a time of political uncertainty or is it an opportunity to grasp with both hands, to renew the political system in the region and beyond and transform the economic landscape.
By Ali Abdulle
barqadle@hotmail.co.uk
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